Threads celebrated its second 12 months of existence over the weekend, and in the event you logged on, you will have been proven this pop-up notification in your feed:

Sure, a celebration hat, which you can’t place in your profile picture, and simply sits as an overlay, irrespective of the place your head is positioned within the body, if certainly it’s your head that you just’re exhibiting in your Threads profile.
Which, within the age of generative AI that may create movies, and AR options that may distort actuality, appears fairly underwhelming. But in addition, it’s not meant to be some huge factor, it’s only a small notifier to mark the occasion, and have fun the expansion of Meta’s most up-to-date success in social media engagement.
And by any measure, Threads has been successful.
The app reached 100 million sign-ups sooner than another app in historical past, which you’ll be able to partly attribute to its linkage to Instagram and streamlined profile creation by way of your IG information. Besides, it’ll go down as a file both manner, whereas Threads additionally reached 100 million energetic customers in just some months.
Threads is now as much as 350 million actives, and its progress momentum continues to speed up, placing it on observe to compete with X on whole energetic customers.

As you may see on this chart, X nonetheless leads the way in which, at 600 million MAU. However Threads is gaining shortly, and as extra group dialogue switches to the app, Threads continues to deliver extra customers throughout to seek out out what’s occurring, throughout a variety of niches.
Threads most up-to-date push on this entrance has been a re-focus on trending subjects, as a way to spark extra real-time dialogue, whereas it’s additionally seeking to deliver extra sports activities dialogue to the app, because it takes purpose at a key X engagement factor.

Meta’s up to date method to political content material has been a profit for the app’s prospects on this respect, and as extra customers flip away from X, Threads is now best-positioned to assemble up these cast-offs, and construct new communities round area of interest pursuits.
And whereas X’s continues to publicly declare that it isn’t dropping customers, its official utilization stats, reported as a part of its EU obligations, counsel in any other case.
In line with its Digital Providers Act reporting, X’s EU utilization is down 15% since Elon Musk took over on the app. We don’t have the identical perception for different markets, but when these tendencies maintain for different areas, X is in vital decline, regardless of, once more, X’s public claims.
The viewers leaving X had additionally been fragmented by different choices, with Bluesky rising as a possible participant in the identical race. Although extra just lately, Bluesky has additionally seen a decline in utilization, because the dialog shifts to Threads as an alternative.
That’s to not say that X is useless, and Threads is the place to be, as a result of for a lot of communities, that’s merely not the case as but. However Threads interplay is rising, and among the many three key gamers within the real-time social house, it’s the just one that may presently make that declare.
However can it develop into the subsequent billion-user app?
That was Mark Zuckerberg’s initially acknowledged imaginative and prescient for the app:
“I’ve thought for a very long time that there needs to be a billion-person public conversations app that’s a bit extra optimistic, and I believe that if we preserve at this for a couple of extra years then I believe we’ve probability of reaching our imaginative and prescient there.”
Is Threads nonetheless thought-about a “extra optimistic” house? Can it proceed to speed up to a billion actives?
I’d say that it could actually, however there’s additionally a giant variance between what can occur and what’ll truly happen.